NSW Electric Bus Plan

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BAMBAM
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NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by BAMBAM »

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newsl ... a13dd70cd4

Jake McCallum, State Political Reporter, NewsLocal, February 19, 2020

Upfront costs and massive infrastructure requirements could derail plans to transform the state’s public bus system into a zero-emission, electric network.

A NSW Government inquiry examining the bid to convert the state’s 8000-strong fleet of buses from diesel to electric has uncovered government agencies and bus companies are concerned about the cost of rolling out new technology to make the vision a reality.

A Transport for NSW representative revealed upgrading the entire fleet to electric would cost an extra $1.9 billion, with the purchase price of a single electric bus being “around $240,000 more” than an equivalent diesel bus.

“However, these electric buses are already cost competitive with diesel buses in total operating costs, with the price offset by operational savings generated over their service lifetime,” the representative told the inquiry.

“Increasing demand for electric buses could also bring their purchase price down … (and) forecasts predict that electric buses will reach unsubsidised upfront cost parity with diesel buses by around 2030.”

The representative said evidence suggested fuelling costs could be more than halved from $64 per day to less than $30 using electric buses, however major infrastructure upgrades at depots and on public routes would be required to charge buses.

“The operation of electric buses can be less flexible than diesel buses, due to their battery range and reliance on charging,” he said.

“This creates a challenge when incorporating them into bus routes that run over long periods of time.”

Current electric buses being used in Leichhardt take between five to eight hours to charge and are forced to return to the depot — meaning quick charging stations would need to be installed along each route to continue services.

The representative said a “complete system” would be required: “The installation of the charging station, as well as integrating charging into routes and layovers, remain the most difficult parts.
Transdev Chief Executive Luke Agati told the inquiry the transition to an electric fleet is “not just about introducing new electric buses”.

“Easy, economical and reliable recharging infrastructure is also an essential requirement,” Mr Agati said. “Additional to this investment, there is also the issue of the capacity of the electricity distribution grid to support more electric public transport.”

The representative from one of Sydney’s largest bus companies said while electric vehicles are currently the most advanced low emission transport technology, “innovation in hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen production are expected to make hydrogen mass transit vehicles more viable in the medium to long term”.

Transdev expects to operate more than 1500 zero-emission buses by 2024.

A Transport Workers Union spokesman said the lack of noise generated from electric buses would increase the risk of accidents involving pedestrians.
“The TWU is aware that drivers driving the small number of electric buses currently on trial in the New South Wales fleet are required to activate a horn or bell-like warning to alert other road users of their presence,” the spokesman said.

“This extra effort for drivers means more distractions to the driver, and increases the chance of incidents occurring.”

Transport Minister Andrew Constance announced the call to transition the fleet to electric buses in October as part of calls for contract bids for 13 regional bus contracts across Sydney.
tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

Too many compromises in the technology to go ahead gung ho just yet. That's why trolleybuses (now evolved into the part-wireless battery/trolley bus with in-motion charging) has survived and continues to thrive among the pragmatic and cost-conscious operations. When there's no compromise to passenger capacity, weight, a full low floor and any other functionality issues as a mass transit vehicle, then it's ready to seriously go. And while operating costs are much lower, I suspect few have come up to the time when the battery packs need to be replaced. They did in Rome and the show almost came to a halt while they faltered over the eye-watering cost.

Then there's the range anxiety, which reduces in inverse proportion to the number of functionality-compromising batteries you have to load on board.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by Merc1107 »

tonyp wrote:And while operating costs are much lower, I suspect few have come up to the time when the battery packs need to be replaced. They did in Rome and the show almost came to a halt while they faltered over the eye-watering cost.
Battery lifespan and cost is definitely something that I'd be interested in, as I imagine the various flash or in-motion recharge solutions would probably cause a lot of stress on the batteries. Hadn't realised the downtime between shifts in the depot was as bad as the article reports, either.

Would liked to have seen figures in the article for the cost of daily refuelling of CNG vehicles, too - as I would think the cost of running a diesel would now be increasing with AdBlue use, plus fuel use penalties from the DPF to regenerating.
moa999
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by moa999 »

Charging rates will increase, probably more quickly than battery storage.
Eg. In cars you've gone from 22kW to 50kW and now up to 250/350kW for a small period.

For the next 5 years we could probably buy electric buses like those being trialled that can do the morning and evening peaks, but need to charge in the middle of the day which probably works with schedules.
By then you hope for quicker charging or bigger batteries for the next series.

In the meantime at major layover points you can install top-up chargers and the like.
tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

Of all the interesting submissions made to the NSW Parliament Inquiry into electric buses, the ones that make it into the news are the manufacturers with the most vested interest in diesel:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newsl ... bB6tMUD9Bk

NSW electric bus plan: experts warn transition could cripple energy grid
Jake McCallum, State Political Reporter, NewsLocal
March 18, 2020 12:20pm

Bus producers, including Volvo and Scania, are calling on the NSW Government to scrap plans to transition the state’s bus network to a completely electric system — instead urging the government to ‘go hybrid hydro’ to reduce the impact on the energy grid.

Australia’s leading minds in the development of hybrid buses gave evidence in the NSW Government inquiry into the large-scale rollout of electric buses across NSW on Wednesday.

Volvo Bus Australia vice president David Mead said although he was convinced electric buses will “play a part in the future of NSW transport” self-charge hybrid buses should not be dismissed.

“Hybrid buses are available today and can be built in NSW with outstanding economic results,” Mr Mead told the inquiry.

“We see them as a viable alternative that will not require massive infrastructure investment and will deliver a lower carbon footprint.”

Scania Australia product manager Trevor O’Brien said if the government’s objective was to reduce the carbon footprint, electric buses would not achieve that result.

“Electric vehicles today will be worse for the environment,” he said. “This is due to the challenges we have with electricity generation through coal.

“Hybrid vehicles could be a bridging option, they are available here and now, rather than waiting for a long and expensive transition.”

ARCC engineering director David Evans agreed with claims the completely electric system would not result in zero-carbon transport, while Siemens Bus Electric vehicle promoter Olivia Laskowski said bus companies were unaware of grid constraints.

Inquiry chair, Hawkesbury state Liberal MP Robyn Preston questioned the lifespan of batteries currently used in electric buses.

However, Mr Mead said the lifespan was “longer than we first predicted”.

“We thought the lifespan of batteries was five years,” he said. “But hybrid buses in London are lasting eight and nine years.

“We can tell the vehicle what to do by GPS or the state of charge and with this technology we are seeing buses travelling for 350km before a charge.

Mr Mead said developers were looking at “fast-charge technology” where bus providers and Transport for NSW could move the charging station from the depot to out into the street.
Germany and Sweden have been slowest and last in Europe to develop electric buses because these countries are the largest manufacturers of automotive diesels and diesel manufacture, service and parts play a significant economic role in their industries. There is plenty of money to be made in diesel with its higher upfront and ongoing costs compared to electric drive which is very simple, low-maintenance and long-lasting. Keeping diesel going is an important business strategy for these manufacturers so they're not jumping over the moon about electrification but have some token models available to stay in the game.

None of them has raised the energy security issue which means that reliance on local coal is vastly more important for our national self-sufficiency (I would say survival) than using imported oil. Hybrid buses still use oil. Instead they flag the red herring of the environmental impact of coal power stations (ignoring of course the significant issue of the benefit of zero tailpipe emissions in cities, which hybrid buses don't offer).

There are plenty of other interesting submissions to read:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/commi ... ubmissions

Here are two:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladoc ... -%2011.pdf

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladoc ... -%2017.pdf

In terms of the concerns about "impact on the electricity grid", this would be reduced if they didn't make such one-eyed talking-up of loading buses up with batteries and using flash-charging at stops (which incidentally increases dwell and journey time) to move them along - not to mention the greater axle load meaning reduced passenger capacity.

Having extensively used European trolley-bus systems (and even the last Australian one, of which we had a few), I sit back and watch this blundering circus and think how lucky the relevant European cities have been to keep those trolley-bus systems going (and how monumentally stupid Wellington was not to), because now they've been able to take advantage of the new battery technology to dispense with a lot of wired running and keep just enough wires for in-motion charging which is a vastly superior method of running electric buses.

So, given that this is the Australian bus industry and we have to set out sights lower, I tend to agree that greater use of hybrid (as they're doing in Victoria) might at least be a practical intermediate step, with the advantage that, if they choose the Volvo model that the Victorians have, we'll get a proper low-floor bus at last. (I won't hold my breath on that for NSW because TfNSW, as always, will make the worst possible decision.) I believe there's a lot more work to do to develop a practical straight-electric bus. Hydrogen may or may not offer something - who knows at this stage? Still a work in progress and too early to make a final decision as Constance wants.

They should also be looking at the experience of the tram industry which is also dealing with this. Anybody without blinkers has to admit that the outcome there is that wires are still best - allowing, at most, short sections of battery running if needed and with in-motion charging.

Edit: an important one -
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladoc ... -%2021.pdf
neilrex
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by neilrex »

I suggest a crowd funding plan. $2000 minimum contribution. When they have enough, they can buy an electric bus.

All those Thunbergites in Newtown should be pleased to put their money where their mouth is.
Linto63
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by Linto63 »

Constance's original announcement was obviously made with no or little research as to the practicalities. Sydney will still be purchasing diesel, or at the very least hybrid, buses for many years.
tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

I think it's important to bear in mind that there's a large amount of hubris attached to the promotion of battery buses, based largely on the China scene, where it's important to understand that cost and practicality are subordinate to marketing. Sure the Chinese are building and running thousands of battery buses but they are all hamstrung by functionality compromises (passenger capacity due to weight and battery storage space), downtime due to need to recharge (whether at depot, stops or termini) and uneven demands on the power supply, among other issues. All of these matters are referred to in submissions to this Inquiry - from operators in particular. In addition, Scania makes a point that the recharge issue in general means that it may be more useful to compare the overall costs of a battery bus system to those of a tram system rather than those of a diesel bus system. I'm not entirely convinced about that because then the argument would be over - you'd be opting for the tram system because of its higher capacity.

I know I'm considered quaint for saying this in Australia, but the most efficient type of electric bus has always been the trolleybus which, in its modern form, has none of the above disadvantages of straight battery buses. I note that the Inquiry's blinkers (and those of people making submissions) are so firmly fixed in place that they are completely ignoring the electrification scene developing in parallel in Europe where cost, functionality and practicality are right at the TOP of the agenda, as they should be here in Australia. If the Inquiry ignores the development of the dynamic in-motion-charging electric bus then it will be one-sided and useless.

There has been a significant development recently in Berlin which, like nearby Prague, has been experimenting with various types of battery and hydrogen bus and, in the end, has come out favouring in-motion charging as the practical solution:

https://www.urban-transport-magazine.co ... lleybuses/
To achieve electrification of its bus fleet by 2030, Berlin is planning a return of trolleybuses as the economical optimum for its trunk lines with IMC overhead 'as much as necessary and as much as possible' likely to provide wiring for 50-65% of key routes. Technical appraisal has shown that a dynamic trolleybus system will have no impact on the service timetable or the fleet size otherwise due to long recharging times at terminii and will allow for higher ranges and larger bus units, such 24m tbuses. Route M32 has been approved by operator BVG as a pilot for a network of 235km with 141km wired (61%), requiring 190 articulated and double articulated tbuses at a cost of 300m euros. Investment is expected to be 50% of other e-bus technologies and has potential for future conversion to light rail following expected increases in passengers carried. (http://www.tbus.org.uk/news.htm)
There are a whole heap of lucky cities around the world with trolleybus systems that already have a foot in the door of cheap and practical electrification - and now with much more route flexibility, the issue that traditionally favoured diesel bsues. This list is a bit out-of-date as new systems are constantly being built, but it might surprise some people how many trolleybus systems actually exist:

http://www.tbus.org.uk/systems.htm

Fleet orders since 2000:

http://www.tbus.org.uk/orders.htm

I think the problem surrounding the Inquiry is that everybody locally has been so pumped up on battery bus propaganda (which dismisses trolleybuses as "outdated" as part of the disparaging marketing) that nobody is aware that there is a whole other scene happening in Europe which is actually the continent with all the overall smarts (including the practical ones) about electric buses.

I regret that I overlooked the call for submissions, otherwise I would have made one about in-motion charging because I can see from reading the submissions that it has been completely overlooked. So the whole matter will just continue to bumble forward as normal. In the end, after being intitially mesmerised by the operating and maintenance cost savings, operators will ultimately react to issues like downtime and passenger capacity. When they find that they (or TfNSW) have to buy greater numbers (requiring more drivers) of more expensive buses to maintain the same - let alone improved - level of service, the other saving won't seem so wonderful.
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1whoknows
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by 1whoknows »

As a fellow rider and explorer of Europe's trolleybus systems I agree that they are an obvious and reasonable solution. Yes the wiring is unsightly but so are many other parts of the urban landscape. I would in fact take the view that the so called trackless trams are really just another version of the trolleybus anyway, though they seem to not be at the right stage of development yet. Wellington was so stupid to get rid of theirs. Can't really blame the Aussie systems as they all closed during the diesel buses rule ok? era of the 50s and 60s. The European systems are a joy to ride and I would love to see them replicated here.
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tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

1whoknows wrote:As a fellow rider and explorer of Europe's trolleybus systems I agree that they are an obvious and reasonable solution. Yes the wiring is unsightly but so are many other parts of the urban landscape. I would in fact take the view that the so called trackless trams are really just another version of the trolleybus anyway, though they seem to not be at the right stage of development yet. Wellington was so stupid to get rid of theirs. Can't really blame the Aussie systems as they all closed during the diesel buses rule ok? era of the 50s and 60s. The European systems are a joy to ride and I would love to see them replicated here.
My initiation to the world of electric buses was riding the Hobart trolleybuses in the 1960s. The Leyland and AEC diesels of Australian government operators in those days were pretty rough affairs and the quietness, smoothness and acceleration of the trolleybuses was an eye-opener by comparison. When you see the heavy lifting the articulated ones in particular do in Europe (less weight, so more passengers), you certainly question the preference for diesel. The problem with the pure battery buses is that you wipe out the weight advantage you gain through getting rid of the diesel engine and fuel tank by replacing it with the same or even greater weight of batteries. Then you have the downtime and peak electricity cost issues. The modern in-motion charging trolleybus doesn't need anywhere near as many batteries on board and has a virtually uncompromised weight/capacity advantage over any other type of bus, as well as not having such peaking demands on the electricity supply and almost unlimited availability.

The other thing with the modern trolleybus is that now you can eliminate a lot of that ugly clutter of wires (junctions and corners mainly) by reducing them to just what is required, plus you can deviate from the route if necessary, which was the impediment on the old trolleybus. I think it's a no-brainer, but in Australia there's an irrational traditional hostility against them in the bus industry, worsened now by seduction by battery bus propaganda. Perhaps the opportunity for looking at China through more critical eyes that is now emerging is a good cue to evaluate these issues with impartially critical eyes.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by moa999 »

By trolleybuses, I assume people are essentially meaning Battery Electric Buses with enroute charging via trolley pole.

I agree this is perfect for many situations - but generally requires a highly trafficed section of separated Busway (to avoid truck conflict)

Perfect for Brisbane's Busways or Adelaides OBahn.
Sydney's most obvious route has just been converted to light rail, and the other western Busways probably don't get enough traffic.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

moa999 wrote:By trolleybuses, I assume people are essentially meaning Battery Electric Buses with enroute charging via trolley pole.

I agree this is perfect for many situations - but generally requires a highly trafficed section of separated Busway (to avoid truck conflict)

Perfect for Brisbane's Busways or Adelaides OBahn.
Sydney's most obvious route has just been converted to light rail, and the other western Busways probably don't get enough traffic.
Yes, that's effectively the modern iteration of the trolleybus - also called in Europe the dynamic electric bus to distinguish it from the static electric bus which is the straight battery bus. Dynamic refers to the fact that it keeps moving; static means that it has to stop for recharge (whichever of the various methods of recharge). It's all propaganda phraseology. Naturally the battery bus advocates don't like referring to their particular pet as "static", but will happily call a dynamic electric bus a "trolleybus" with all its negative connotations (a bit like the "tram" vs "light rail" nonsense)! You have to cut through the propaganda and China is very big on propaganda, as we know.

Trucks aren't an issue, the wires are well above the legal height limits. Certainly the big articulated trolleybuses are best on trunk routes, which is how they're normally applied. Battery buses do have a definite future role on feeder routes where passenger capacity requirements aren't so high and greater downtime is not such an issue.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by neilrex »

Its my opinion that in motion charging of any kind cannot work. i dont mean wires or third rails, I mean the ones which are supposed to work like induction cookers. Not efficient, hazardous and the planet does not have enough copper.
tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

neilrex wrote:Its my opinion that in motion charging of any kind cannot work. i dont mean wires or third rails, I mean the ones which are supposed to work like induction cookers. Not efficient, hazardous and the planet does not have enough copper.
It's instructive to look at the Berlin timeline on this. First, an announcement with great fanfare about an inductive charging system:

https://www.bombardier.com/en/media/new ... er-bu=tran

Then this:

https://www.urban-transport-magazine.co ... -charging/

Now the final decision in favour of in-motion charging using OHW. Not many cities have trialled the range of electrification technology as much as Berlin. The Primove system was Bombardier's great hope. It's now dead in the water with the only other example being in China where cost is no object.

On the subject of cost and peaks of electricity demand, it's also worth remembering that overhead wire contact has always had the advantage of the capability of regenerating electricity back into the system. No wireless system, including APS, can do this.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

Many salient points made in this article, which should be required reading at the Minister's office, at TfNSW and at the Inquiry:

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/ ... eb/577954/

From past injurious experience in the tram industry I would caution that, with these alternative technologies, there are many snake-oil salesmen peddling their "solutions in search of problems" and the bus industry is now copping the same. Unfortunately this Inquiry will be too narrow in scope, having evidently been blinded by the snowstorm of promotion of battery buses and the ignorant denigration of trolleybuses that continues as it has for many decades in Australasia. Very hard to get impartial, rational analyses up and running in that environment.
tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

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moa999
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by moa999 »

So yet another trial.
What didn't they learn from the current Inner West trial?
What happened to the $10m election promise for electric buses at Randwick?

Meanwhile just buy more diesel.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by J_Busworth »

moa999 wrote:So yet another trial.
What didn't they learn from the current Inner West trial?
What happened to the $10m election promise for electric buses at Randwick?

Meanwhile just buy more diesel.
I'm hoping that they worked out that Chinese buses are garbage based on the Inner West trial. Best to wait for the dry cell battery technology pioneered by Merc with their eCitaro to become available in Australia - more likely through the new Denning Element than the Merc eCitaro as the Merc is too wide. I was really impressed by the eCitaro when I saw the early production models in service in Berlin. They are as good as a diesel from what I could tell, the Inner West BYDs and Yutongs not so much.

In terms of electric buses for Randwick depot - that was an election promise contingent in the electorate of Coogee which the depot is located in voting Liberal at the last election. Instead they chose to vote Labor and got a Labor MP who is an anti-tram, anti-bus privatisation spokesperson. In doing that, all the promises such as electric buses for Randwick, brining back the 378, etc have been tossed aside.
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tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

This is different in that it looks like a total package approach (including infrastructure and financing). I hope some European contenders will throw their hats in the ring this time. If an Australian manufacturer can come up with a proper fully low floor electric bus that actually works, they would be welcome too.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

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Stu
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by Stu »

J_Busworth wrote:
I'm hoping that they worked out that Chinese buses are garbage based on the Inner West trial. Best to wait for the dry cell battery technology pioneered by Merc with their eCitaro to become available in Australia - more likely through the new Denning Element than the Merc eCitaro as the Merc is too wide. I was really impressed by the eCitaro when I saw the early production models in service in Berlin. They are as good as a diesel from what I could tell, the Inner West BYDs and Yutongs not so much.

In terms of electric buses for Randwick depot - that was an election promise contingent in the electorate of Coogee which the depot is located in voting Liberal at the last election. Instead they chose to vote Labor and got a Labor MP who is an anti-tram, anti-bus privatisation spokesperson. In doing that, all the promises such as electric buses for Randwick, brining back the 378, etc have been tossed aside.
The Chinese buses may be rubbish elsewhere in the world, the Inner West trial is only 10 months into a two year trial.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by iamthouth »

https://www.busnews.com.au/industry-new ... -announced
"EIGHT INTERACTIVE online sessions will constitute the first zero-emissions bus (ZEB) forum for the Australasian region, to be held 1 October – 19 November, organiser The International Association of Public Transport in Australia New Zealand (UITPANZ) has announced, recently."
Action on this is long overdue, but it is welcome to see it start happening finally. We've got about 3 years of catch up to do compared to Europe, and will hopefully convert faster than 26 year maximum bus age.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by 1whoknows »

Unfortunately the e-citaro remains irrelevant to Australia at this time as its overwidth and Europe is unlikely to produce a narrow version just for us.
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tonyp
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by tonyp »

1whoknows wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:07 am Unfortunately the e-citaro remains irrelevant to Australia at this time as its overwidth and Europe is unlikely to produce a narrow version just for us.
However, MB has been making overtures on the Australian market for some time for some of their European models. I'm sure if they get a large enough order they will produce a compliant version. The biggest issue is not the body width but swapping the drive train to the other side if somebody wants a back door.
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Re: NSW Electric Bus Plan

Post by Campbelltown busboy »

tonyp wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:45 am
1whoknows wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:07 am Unfortunately the e-citaro remains irrelevant to Australia at this time as its overwidth and Europe is unlikely to produce a narrow version just for us.
However, MB has been making overtures on the Australian market for some time for some of their European models. I'm sure if they get a large enough order they will produce a compliant version. The biggest issue is not the body width but swapping the drive train to the other side if somebody wants a back door.
The transport minister has to do a major bureaucratic clean out of Transport For NSW before any real changes like 3 door 12 metre buses and unsupervised rear door loading can happen
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