Predictions for the 2020s

[Campbelltown busboy]

Here are a few perdictions for the 2020

Route service withdrawal of all Busabout Buslines group Busways and Transdev 1998-2004 era Bustechs

Route service withdrawal of all older CB60s

Withdrawal of K sets C sets and V sets

Borders of Sydney metropolitan area extension to Gosford lower blue mountains Wollongong and Wollondilly

[ScaniaGrenda]

Definitely agree with Cambelltown Busboy, I do unfortunately see the withdrawal of the K, C and V sets happening before the end of the 2020 decade. I don't think anyone has talked about preservation of train sets since it's not as easy and open to do so compared to bus preservation and these are electric sets so will need overheads to run. I guess if one of out of the 3 gets preserved I see it being a V set given the impact they've had on the rail network and how well known they are. I do see whatever they can't scrap being sent to training facilities around the country mainly search and rescue training or if a small group gets lucky it's used as some sort of art project.

One of the big coach makers has another go at the low entry market, this could be Coach Design, Coach Concepts, Irizar etc, however there isn't many companies interested in their low entry buses or the market is still so small for them that there really aren't many orders taken. Operators however will still continue to invest in their bodies for highfloor buses & coaches.

Another body by TOST (The Omnibus Society trust, hope I said that right) makes an appearance on a NSW bus, possibly on a Volvo B8RLE chassis.

Again can't really recall if it has been talked about but I'll just mention it anyway, before the end of 2020 we'll see some highfloor electric buses, these become popular for use on long distance routes such as NSW Trainlink bus services.

In less than two years from now, PSC will withdraw all it's remaining ex Brisbane Transport Volvo B10M Austral Metrolliner buses.

STA if it isn't privatized trials another articulated bus on the Custom Endeavor series body on a Scania K310UA chassis, however no further orders are made and this will remain the only Scania Endeavor in the fleet that is articulated.

Brisbane Transport starts withdrawing more of their MAN 18.310 with CR228L Bodywork, the majority of them are sold to various operators in Melbourne Victoria, however in NSW Transit Systems despite already having Similar MAN's still decides to add some to the fleet anyway. I'm going to make a small joke and guess one of the 18.310's will end up as someones back shed (as I've already seen with one L94UB)

I'd estimate around 2025 the K94UB's from Hunter valley buses will be made full time charter / school buses making rare appearances on service routes. We've sort of already seen this happen to the older MAN 12.220's and the O405NH's when the ex Stationlink Optimuses came in. On the same topic a few of the K94UB's may also get moved up to the Singleton Depot full time.

Due to a growing population boom in the Maitland NSW region, NSW passenger trainlink services at certain times during the day will run as a 4 car service, some stations on the line will at first be unable to accommodate 4 car sets so as a temporary measure anyone wishing to board or alight at these stations will need to get on the middle car. upgrades is later undertaken to extend platforms at certain stations so middle door alighting / boarding doesn't always need to happen.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Due to a growing population boom in the Maitland NSW region, NSW passenger trainlink services at certain times during the day will run as a 4 car service, some stations on the line will at first be unable to accommodate 4 car sets so as a temporary measure anyone wishing to board or alight at these stations will need to get on the middle car. upgrades is later undertaken to extend platforms at certain stations so middle door alighting / boarding doesn't always need to happen.

Would a direct Trainlink intercity Maitland to Sydney service be posible

[Shoudy Chen]

- All O405NH buses will be retired from TransRegionals. They will be replaced with Volvo B7RLE diesels.
- Most of the OC500LE CNG buses will be phased out and are being replaced with B8RLE buses. Southern River depot will gain more Volvo’s
- Volvo B7RLE buses will be refurbished in transperth.
- COVID-19 pandemic will end in May 2022. It will take a long way for economic recovery.
- AFL— Fremantle will win their first ever premiership flag.
- Harry taylor and Tom Hawkins will retire from playing AFL this year
- Qantas plans to retire its A380 aircraft and replace with fuel efficient twin engines
- Apple will unveil its foldable touch phone for the first time.
- windows 11 will be launched.
- A Series train to be retired and replaced with C series. B Series train will be used on Freo, Midland, armo/Thornlie Lines, C Series trains to be deployed on Joondalup/ Mandurah lines.
- Welshpool Station will be permanently closed due to poor patronage
- Melbourne population to overtake sydney as the most populous city in Australia in 2025.
- geelong will overtake Wollongong in population size.
- Most BMW and Mercedes benz will stop producing Diesel powered cars
- More Adelaide railway lines will be electrified.
- Aaron finch, Rachael Haynes and David Warner will retire from playing cricket in 2023.

[MotorOmnibus8562]

All the current Grazing land south of Wodonga will be completely taken over by urbanisation

Possibility of Rupert Murdoch retiring before 2030, meaning a possibility of the ending of his propaganda.

A few V/line N class and N sets will become preserved, some N locos will be bought by freight companies while others are preserved. Some N sets will be converted into long distance cars for Great southern rail while others are also preserved.

A few V/line H sets will also be preserved while others are sold or converted to buildings

N class locos will be converted to operate on Electricity or Hydrogen.

Vline loco A66 will no longer be used as an emergency locomotive.

The Stony Point line will get upgrades Such as additions of crossing loops

The education system will be overhauled in Australia.

All new Cars in Norway will require to be powered by electricity. (with 60 per cent of new cars in norway sold were electric this year - thats 3 in 5 cars being electric.)

Australia will finally start manufacturing electric cars

Local Governments in regional areas will get the power to control public transport lines that operate within their local area, Any other transport lines operating in two or more lgas must be decided between the local governments, if the majority agrees then the pu lic transport line will be established.

Daylight saving will be abolished worldwide

[Campbelltown busboy]

50% of buses running route services in metropolitan Sydney will be electric by the end of 2029/2030 financial year
NRL will add 2 more teams and the premiership will go across the Tasman for the first time
Hydrogen cars will come more common and available
Electric cars will become more affordable as manufacturers like Ford Toyota Honda Mazda Kia etc will build more electric models
DAB digital will become standard mode of radio in all new cars
More local Australian made content on tv

[MotorOmnibus8562]

Volgren Builds more electric Buses

More Bus operators start buying Electric or Hybrid Buses as they slowly become more available to operators

Custom Denning Builds Their Electric low floor buses and Will start building Custom Endeavors on Hybrid Chassis.

Bus bodies going all the way back to the Disability Discriminating Act. 1992 (Such as Volgren CR221L) that were built in the past will be built again but with several features that were never implemented in the past.

[MotorOmnibus8562]

The AK cars will be withdrawn and will possibly be preserved and replaced by a new track inspection vehicle (This track inspection vehicle will more technologically advanced than MPTV1 and MPTV2)

Red Rattler Set W3 will be operational again

The Three S sets will be restored, the carriages will be painted in multiple different liveries, while a few remain as they currently are.

S set cars C3840 and T4058 will be preserved and replaced by a pair of K or C set cars. (K and C sets were removed from service in 2017 after asbestos was found in the driver compartment)

Car 3805 and 4150 will be part of a final s set, Car 3814 (If its still allive) will be a museum car.

Car 3218 will be removed from F1 and placed on a different red rattler

Another Red rattler will be formed out of the cars in SETS' collection

The parcel van in the SETS collection will be restored

A U set will be restored.

[captainch]

THE YEAR 2021 WILL start on I MINUTE Past min MIDNIGHT on the 1st of JAN.2021.

[MotorOmnibus8562]

While I also see some V/line N cars getting converted for great southern rail, I also see Great southern rail ordering HMUs (Hybrid Multiple Units) similar to the Bi-mode being used on The NRF (New regional fleet) In NSW

Some Dysons CR227Ls and a few CR222Ls will be sent up to regional Depots like Wodonga and Shepparton as well as Wodonga possibly regaining its All its Ex Mylon fleet for occasional charter, most likely used for emergency purposes (as Ive already been seeing the Ex Mylon CR221s back doing route service in peak hour as well as use of charter buses/coaches on route runs due to COVID19 so I dare say Bus operaters that operate local route services interstate have learnt a few lessons, the buses sent up to Wodonga will be modified to have NSW school lights so they can operate school services in NSW, (Similar to 132, 454, 460, 462 and 463 as they all got modified so they can operate school services in NSW without the sharing the school lights with the turning indicators)

Dysons Will start Buying Gemilangs for regional Depots and somwtimes, Volgrens, as well as Express coaches for Kyneton and Bairnsdale

Dysons Bus #309 will be replaced by two new buses for Bairnsdale, #309 gets sent to Wodonga, Kyneton, Shepparton or Deniliquin to have school lights added and placed on full time school service.

[eddy]

Old people will live in huge maintenance free units with all the services and transport saving state governments heaps.

Young families will buy their free standing homes and walk to frequent fast Trailerbuses on major roads.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Young families will buy their free standing homes and walk to frequent fast Trailerbuses on major roads.

How would you pitch your trailerbus idea to the government and how do these trailersbuses get towed without requiring the use of semi cabs

[eddy]

Young families will buy their free standing homes and walk to frequent fast Trailerbuses on major roads.

How would you pitch your trailerbus idea to the government and how do these trailersbuses get towed without requiring the use of semi cabs

Yes, they would be towed by a speed limited prime mover which could be diesel or full electric costing $250,000

The biggest running cost of a bus is the driver and the bigger capacity would allow cheap, frequent transport the voters would love.

I think once people got used to walking to major roads it would be regarded as cheap exercise.

[Heihachi_73]

Old people will live in huge maintenance free units with all the services and transport saving state governments heaps.

The topic said predictions for the 2020s, not the 2120s.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Old people will live in huge maintenance free units with all the services and transport saving state governments heaps.

The topic said predictions for the 2020s, not the 2120s.

Someone should make a topic called predictions for the rest of the 21st century for more long term predictions like this

[Fleet Lists]

Heaven help us for that. How can you predict beyond 2030 as you have no idea what will happen in the next to years, let alone the next 80 years.

[Centralian]

Rather sad to think of 'old people' living in huge maintenance free units.
Have a read on Wikipedia (unless you've seen the movie) of the plot in 'Soylent Green' which starred Charlton Heston.
It's set in 2022.

[eddy]

Old people will live in huge maintenance free units with all the services and transport saving state governments heaps.

The topic said predictions for the 2020s, not the 2120s.

As Australia cannot afford to keep old people in their homes now it will be impossible when we are not selling stuff to China.

[Lt. Commander Data]

Rather sad to think of 'old people' living in huge maintenance free units.
Have a read on Wikipedia (unless you've seen the movie) of the plot in 'Soylent Green' which starred Charlton Heston.
It's set in 2022.

Try reading 1984 by George Orwell - not just old people living in maintenance free homes

[eddy]

Rather sad to think of 'old people' living in huge maintenance free units.
Have a read on Wikipedia (unless you've seen the movie) of the plot in 'Soylent Green' which starred Charlton Heston.
It's set in 2022.

You can’t always get what you want https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv9sDn_2XkI

Sure a lot better to have friends, services and transport in a small unit than cooped up in a nursing home.

[ScaniaGrenda]

At some point: Some older CR221L buses will be withdrawn and converted into motorhomes making some of the few (not sure?) first low entry motorhome buses.

Transperths unique buses, the Scania L94UA, MAN A24 NG313F, IVECO Citelis 18 GNC and All Mercedes O500LE CNG are set to be withdrawn by 2027 as Transperth commences withdrawal of their CNG buses. It's unlikely all 3 of these unique buses will make it into preservation or a museum due to expensive costs to replace the fuel tanks or convert them to diesel which means they'll be heading straight to the scrapyard unless parts can be pulled from them first.

Custom denning makes a prototype Midi bus based on their Endeavor body, the bus will have less than 25 seats and will be available on either a MAN chassis or Volvo chassis.

Some more Australian retailers close their brick & mortar stores & become online only however the dark side here is one or two will just use drop shipping and will ship from some generic warehouse.

Electric freight trains make a come back?

Amazon sets up a distribution warehouse In Newcastle.

The Volgren Endura / Optimus range is retired by 2023 - 2024 with the last orders for this range to be completed by 2025, Volgren will announce a new body range in 2024. It is presumed like it's predecessor it'll take on much of it's look but with a few notable changes.

USB charging becomes more commonplace on Australian route service buses.

An Australian supermarket trials an Amazon "Go" store like concept where customers do not need to physically pay for their items, when they exit the store the total cost for the amount of items they have are charged to their card. Meaning no longer is there any checkouts, lines, waiting, just grab what you need and go. The stores Information infrastructure takes care of the rest and is extremely smart with little failure to know what exactly you've picked up and taken with you . For this system to work efficiently this particular store will only accept people who are signed up to said stores rewards or membership / rewards program. On entry to the store you will scan your membership card like you do with an Opal card and the entry barrier will open and grant you access. The store itself will likely be automated however a few employees will be kept on site during opening hours to ensure the store runs smoothly and without a hitch.

[Campbelltown busboy]

An Australian supermarket trials an Amazon "Go" store like concept where customers do not need to physically pay for their items, when they exit the store the total cost for the amount of items they have are charged to their card. Meaning no longer is there any checkouts, lines, waiting, just grab what you need and go. The stores Information infrastructure takes care of the rest and is extremely smart with little failure to know what exactly you've picked up and taken with you . For this system to work efficiently this particular store will only accept people who are signed up to said stores rewards or membership / rewards program. On entry to the store you will scan your membership card like you do with an Opal card and the entry barrier will open and grant you access. The store itself will likely be automated however a few employees will be kept on site during opening hours to ensure the store runs smoothly and without a hitch.

What about a in app scan and pay feature where people can use their phones to scan items and pay with a saved card that is stored in the stores app

[Shoudy Chen]

We've seen a lot of buses being retired from Transperth.
- Mercedes Benz O405NH buses will be retired and be replaced with Volvos. The last Transperth bus will be retired in September 2021, while the last TransRegional bus will be retired in December 2021. This would mark an end of a great era to these O405NH buses after nearly 23 years. Most of the O405NH buses would be heading over to the east while others will be used for private bus services in WA.
- Transperth will commence phasing out the OC500LE buses. These CNG tanks have hit their expiry dates. Most of them will be used for parts, while others will be towed away to scrapyard. The last OC500LE bus to be withdrawn will be in Dec 2027. This will mark the end of a great era for CNG buses after over 30 years in service.
- The Articulated CNG buses, Scania L94UA, MAN NG313F and Iveco Citelis 18 GNC buses to be retired by 2026 with new Volvos replacing them. THey will have to strip out the parts including the engine, the seats, the driver's seat, the bus stop bell, the exhaust pipes and the displays.
- Some of the Volvo B7RLE rigids (with CR228L body) will be transferred to regional areas to replace the ageing buses. Volvo B7RLE rigids will strip out the CAT Livery and wear it as a normal Transperth Livery.
- Transwa Australind ADP/ADQ railcars will be retired in mid 2022, bringing an end to 35 year services.
- Volvo B12LEA will be undergo refurbishment with new seat design.
- Volvo B7RLE Optimus buses will be refurbished with a newer white desto displays.

Aircraft
- Qantas is in the process of retiring its A380-800 and replacing it with newer fuel efficient aircraft. As well, they will retire most of its A330 fleet and replace it with new aircraft.
- Singapore Air and Qatar will retire the entire A380 fleet and replace it with 777x

Sport
- Geelong Cats will slide down and miss the finals for the first time since 2015. It's likely that Tom Hawkins, Shaun Higgins, Isaac Smith, Joel Selwood, Dangerfield, Stanley, Tuohy, L Henderson will retire in 2022.
- Melbourne Demons membership numbers will increase to 70k by 2023.
- Fremantle Dockers will win a premiership for the first time in history.
- Melbourne Storm will slide down and miss the finals for the first time since 2010. Some of the players may move on.

Population
- Melbourne will overtake SYdney as the most populous city in 2025.
- Geelong will overtake Wollongong in population. The Geelong population is growing much faster than Wollongong.
- Perth population will grow to 2.3 million by the end of this decade
- Canberra population will reach 500k by 2028.

[Bus Suggestions]

Aviation:

• We'll see a general decline in orders of high-capacity, wide-body aircraft, with most carriers moving to order new and more cost-effective narrow-body jets, in response to a downturn in aviation passenger traffic.
• The last quad-jet aircraft (Airbus A380 and Boeing 747) will be retired from passenger service or put into long-term storage as a result of the decreased passengers.
• Boeing's passenger aviation market share will drop markedly as a number of airlines move away from Boeing orders as a result of the 737 MAX issues and South Carolina Dreamliner quality control issues.
• Regional Express will take a significant portion of the Australian domestic aviation market, with Rex taking delivery of 737-800s from various sources, primarily ex-Virgin Australia.
• Sometime mid-decade, a new aircraft manufacturer will rise with an attempt to break the Airbus and Boeing duopoly in the market.

Public transport:

• Volgren will deliver new buses to Singapore or Japan on Scania or Volvo chassis.
• In line with the prediction by ScaniaGrenda, Volgren will release two new body designs mid-decade, with focus on light weight and efficiency, to replace the Optimus and Endura in their product line. At a similar time, Volgren's parent company, Marcopolo, will release a new body design aimed at replacing the Audace, with more commonality with the Volgren products.
• Bustech will get those two darned ZDis in service mid-decade - probably not before the first prototype of the Ebusco 3.0 is released.
• Custom will release a new body design mid-decade in response to the new Volgren body. At some stage, they will also open a second factory.
• As the gas tanks on the CNG OC500LEs expire, the PTA WA fleet will become at least 90% Volvo.
• Volvo and Volgren will again be announced as winners of the PTA's new bus supply contract.

[MotorOmnibus8562]

Another new Housing Estate In Wodonga's East somewhere in Bonegilla with most of the other Estates that have been going up possibly hitting their final Stages of Development since circa 2016

Development of the proposed commercial precinct in South Wodonga

Dysons, Martins Albury and Cleanaway will move to a different site again to store their fleet as Albury Wodonga keeps growing. Possibly for much bigger land.

All the major bus manufactuers start building more electric buses and more will become available and affordable to purchase and diesel vehicles will become too expensive to purchase, the manufacturers build their last diesel vehicles from at least 2025 onwards

Volgrens possible New Body from 2025 will have the "Electric Vehicle option" but still have a diesel powered body but the diesel powered body will only be produced into 50-100 vehicles and the electric will be the only option available

Taco Bell will open more stores in Australia in the very near future, their first Albury Wodonga store will open possibly in 2021 at the earliest.

Burger Urge will open more Stores across Australia (Their first Victorian store is in Wodonga)

A bus building facility is possible in Albury/Wodonga, Likely a volgren facility.

Scania Builds an electric bus chassis