grog wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:08 am
Something like 20% of jobs are in Sydney CBD. Many more are in other centres, and the remainder are dispersed. That second category (in centres that aren’t the CBD) is the big growth opportunity for PT patronage growth, and is the kind of patronage that a connected, simple, single stopping pattern metro style network that encourages interchange will support. The world should not revolve around long distance trips into Sydney CBD.
That may be so, but the fact remains that the Sydney CBD has and will continue to have the largest concentration of employment across the Sydney Region, which is conducive to high capacity public transport particularly by rail. The other major employment centres such as Parramatta and Macquarie Park have only a fraction of the capacity, while smaller strategic centres and widely dispersed employment across the region make up the rest. I have accessed Land Use Planner - Employment statistics from the Transport for NSW website as follows -
2021 - 345,000
2056 - 511,000
2021 - 59,000
2056 - 118,000
Macquarie Park/North Ryde
2021 - 78,000
2056 - 111,000
I haven't been able to find any meaningful figures for the Western Parklands City, which only shows Badgerys Creek with an employment projection of around 16,000 in 2056.
It is extremely unlikely that modal share for public transport, which is 75% in the Sydney CBD, will approach anything like that in Parramatta or Macquarie Park, let alone in other centres. At best, they might reach 40-50% and even that's being generous. They will still be heavily dependent on private cars, particularly Macquarie Park because of its abundance of parking. Unlike Parramatta, Macquarie Park is still essentially a 'Business Park' and I expect that the Western Parklands City will develop in much the same way, not that there's anything wrong with that.
The dominance of employment in the Sydney CBD compared with the other strategic centres suggests that it won't just be reliant on the so called Eastern Harbour City, but will draw commuters from all over the Sydney Region and its hinterland. Hence the importance of maintaining the Sydney CBD as the focus of the broader transport network for Suburban, Intercity and Regional travel, particularly rail. Proposed new cross regional rail links will service the other major strategic centres as well as being serviced by the existing network.
Finally, I'm sceptical of the Three Cities concept promoted by the Government and more particularly the myth that it will create 30 minute cities. It might for some, but the vast majority will continue to travel all over the Sydney Region for employment opportunities. Parramatta and the Western Parklands City, based on the new airport and Aerotropolis, will never become true CBD's in their own right and at best are and will develop into major Sub-Regional centres. The same goes for Macquarie Park. The last thing Sydney needs is to develop like Los Angeles, which had a widely decentralised city structure without a central city soul. They appear to be now reversing that trend.