[SMH] Public transport growth surges past NSW government....

[swtt]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/pub ... 54208.html
Public transport growth surges past NSW government predictions

Growth on the state's public transport network has hurtled past long-term government predictions, with 93 million more trips taken on buses and trains last year than what was forecast for 2031.

A report used by the NSW government as the “framework” for investing tens of billions in transport projects over the coming decades predicted rail growth would increase by 26 per cent between 2011 and 2031.

However, the rail network reached and then exceeded that predicted figure by 2017, more than a decade early.

The projection, made in the 2012 report, for bus growth was also reached 13 years early. Last year, the number of bus trips was 54 million higher than the forecast.

University of Technology transport expert Mathew Hounsell said the figures reinforced the need for the government to invest more in the city’s heavy rail and bus network.

“There is no plan to deal with this level of growth,” he said.

“What we’re now seeing is there’s a lot more growth above what’s forecast.”

Meanwhile, passenger numbers during peak times reached levels that can slow down services on nearly all metropolitan train lines last year.

Trains on six out of 12 suburban lines reached their capacity during the morning peak in March 2019, according to Transport for NSW's latest data.

All lines except the Central Coast and Newcastle via North Shore route experienced numbers at which "customers start to experience crowding and dwell times can impact service on-time running", for services arriving at Central Station between 8am and 9am.

Asked how it would respond to the patronage, the state's transport agency said the department was “delighted” that demand was outpacing population growth.

“[The growth] is also a result of more frequent rail services and the completion of a new Metro Line,” a Transport for NSW spokesman said.

He said the government was spending more than $55 billion on major transport projects over the next four years, including the WestConnex motorway, metro rail lines, and the Parramatta light rail.

“The NSW government is delivering the largest transport infrastructure program this nation has ever seen,” he said.

While a public transport masterplan was released for NSW in 2018, Future Transport 2056, Transport for NSW said the report had no equivalent growth projection to the 2031 report.

Patronage on public transport grew by 5.3 per cent in 2019 alone, far above that of population, which Mr Hounsell said indicated a behavioural shift in the community.

“There needs to be significant investment in the heavy rail system to cope with the increase in demand and changing habits. The Bankstown Metro won’t address these problems,” he said.

“There’s no technical issues, it’s just a matter of the politicians investing where they need to, not where they think there’s more votes.”

Mr Hounsell said simple improvements to the city’s traffic light network, bus stops and routes would have an immediate impact on the network, as well as other “low hanging fruit that doesn’t get a ribbon cutting ceremony”.

He added the rapid growth on the network indicated that when the government invested in transport infrastructure, it was utilised.

“If you provide high quality public transport, high frequency public transport, people use it,” he said.

The biggest growth on the network came from Sydney’s North Shore line, which jumped 37 per cent, and the T5 Cumberland line, which increased by 10 per cent.

The government has added an extra 43,000 services to weekly public transport services since March 2011.

Opposition transport spokesman Chris Minns said the acceleration in commuters was concerning because the government was “hitting the end” of its funded public transport infrastructure plans "at exactly the wrong moment for the growth of the city".

The baseline 2011 figure for bus patronage in the masterplan was slightly higher than the actual figure recorded in the 2011-12 Transport for NSW annual report.

[boronia]

As usual, a lot of the comments to this article blame "excessive immigration" for the problem, but overlook that the rate of increase in use is probably well in excess of the rate of population increase.

[tonyp]

As usual, a lot of the comments to this article blame "excessive immigration" for the problem, but overlook that the rate of increase in use is probably well in excess of the rate of population increase.

And set against a background of the previous few decades where the rate of public transport patronage growth was well less than the rate of population growth.

[swtt]

As usual, a lot of the comments to this article blame "excessive immigration" for the problem, but overlook that the rate of increase in use is probably well in excess of the rate of population increase.

And set against a background of the previous few decades where the rate of public transport patronage growth was well less than the rate of population growth.

That's where cars dominated and the created the congestion problems.

This is now in reverse - I guess the congestion problems are still around as more road projects are yet to unlock capacity (WCX New M5, NCX etc) but there are other PT projects that will also create more room for growth on the roads.

[neilrex]

the trains dont actually seem to be more crowded than they were 30 years ago. they are bigger , more frequent and more reliable.

The recent generations of immigrants use them a lot more than the native population and previous generations of immigrants do. its amazing how busy Waitara station has become.

[swtt]

the trains dont actually seem to be more crowded than they were 30 years ago. they are bigger , more frequent and more reliable.

The recent generations of immigrants use them a lot more than the native population and previous generations of immigrants do. its amazing how busy Waitara station has become.

That's because the previous generation of immigrants came to Sydney with the mentality of wanting a big suburban block and a Holden in the garage - which is what attracted them here in the first place. Oops.

(Well, let's hope newer migrants want to come because there's a pretty good balance a fantastic transport system, balanced styled of accommodation - a la not Hong Kong and generally a friendly population as their neighbours!)

[BroadGauge]

That's because the previous generation of immigrants came to Sydney with the mentality of wanting a big suburban block and a Holden in the garage - which is what attracted them here in the first place. Oops.

Things have changed a lot since then! These days most new migrants to Sydney would be happy to live in an apartment with five others.

[rogf24]

It's worth noting that Melbourne hasn't seen a similar surge in patronage in recent times despite their rapid, mostly-immigration driven growth as well. So as mentioned earlier, there's more to the story than migrants using more public transport. If Sydney growth is indeed migrant-driven, why aren't Melbourne migrants (who by in large have similar backgrounds to Sydney ones) using public transport?

[swtt]

It's worth noting that Melbourne hasn't seen a similar surge in patronage in recent times despite their rapid, mostly-immigration driven growth as well. So as mentioned earlier, there's more to the story than migrants using more public transport. If Sydney growth is indeed migrant-driven, why aren't Melbourne migrants (who by in large have similar backgrounds to Sydney ones) using public transport?

Migration or otherwise, since 2013 there has been a massive build up of PT services, with the buses it was consolidating poorly patronised routes for buses and also boosting major corridor services. With trains, the major TT changes in 2013 saw a lot of daytime off peak services built up to 15 min, and subsequently 2017 that expanded to the weekends as well.

Not to mention that congestion on the roads is also pushing people on to PT. I'm one of them - I used to be very happy to drive to work but gave up in around 2017, and back in the day it meant losing 12 min interchange time at Epping (before the ECRL was shut down and Northern line trains ran the way they did prior to the ECRL opening)

[swtt]

Followup article: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-s ... 5429o.html

Edit: maybe stop blaming Transit Systems for late buses since taking over, but rather for a real increase in patronage and congestion!
'A squeeze': bus trips doubled in one Sydney region
The number of trips commuters took on buses in Sydney's inner west more than doubled last year, prompting experts to warn of the risk of more delays to services due to the pressure on public transport.

In a further sign of the growing demand, passenger numbers on the North Shore rail line surged by 38 per cent to 61 million trips last year, from a year earlier.

The figures come as overall usage of NSW trains and buses reached long-term projections more than a decade early, with 93 million more trips than what was forecast for 2031 taken last year.

The number of trips taken on inner west bus routes jumped 104.6 per cent between 2018 and 2019, with 60 million trips logged, Transport for NSW figures show.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said it was "joyful" to see public transport patronage increase, adding there were a number of new projects to cater to growing demand.

"Please know that investment in transport is also increasing; when you look at the new metro system we're building; when you look at the road networks; the light rail here in Parramatta," she said.

"Every time we embark on a public transport project, know that our intention is to provide more choices and options for people so that they can leave their cars at home and use a system which is efficient and modern and can be compared to any in the world."

Transport Minister Andrew Constance also welcomed the higher-than-forecast figures.

"No one predicted the growth we have seen in Sydney. At no point in history has the city seen this kind of population boom," he said.

"The exciting thing is the next stage of metro is just around the corner, which will really change the way people move around our city."

University of Sydney senior transport lecturer Geoffrey Clifton said public transport users could continue to expect "a bit of a squeeze" until the metro lines were built.

"We've squeezed almost as much as we can out of the current system. When you add more services in off-peak periods as we've been doing, it means any delays lead to services being affected," he said.

Buses on routes in the inner west missed punctuality targets for 10 months last year, while trains on the North Shore line missed seven months.

The target is for at least 92 per cent of peak-hour Sydney Trains to arrive at their destination within five minutes of the timetable, and for at least 95 per cent of bus services to be running on time.

A Transport for NSW spokesman said it monitors the performance of all bus operators and works with them to improve services.

"Region six in Sydney's inner west remains one of the most challenging regions for bus operations and service delivery with some of Sydney's busiest roads," he said.

"The Sydney Train network continues to perform well, with peak punctuality at 91.9 per cent [so far this financial year], less than a percentage shy of the 92 per cent benchmark.

"Every effort is made to restore services when customers are affected by unexpected incidents."

Sydney Trains increased services on the North Shore line last year to cater to more passengers at Chatswood station after the opening of the new metro.

The number of bus services in the inner west has increased following the privatisation of bus services there in 2018.

Patronage on NSW trains and buses has grown by 47 per cent in the seven years since 2011-12.

[Off The Rails]

From news article above
The number of bus services in the inner west has increased following the privatisation of bus services there in 2018.

After being in Sydney 2 weeks ago, and seeing how many stickers there are from the RTBU stating that 'privatisation = less trips', I'm sure this will be very annoying to them

Back on topic, during my short stay, I was very surprised to see early morning services (before peak) being very highly patronised. Caught the first B1 to Mona Vale, leaving Wynyard at 5:30am - 99% sure it was a standing load. It's a stark contrast to Perth, where you'd be getting that are 7am on trips into the city.

Cheers!

[tonyp]

It's worth noting that Melbourne hasn't seen a similar surge in patronage in recent times despite their rapid, mostly-immigration driven growth as well. So as mentioned earlier, there's more to the story than migrants using more public transport. If Sydney growth is indeed migrant-driven, why aren't Melbourne migrants (who by in large have similar backgrounds to Sydney ones) using public transport?

Melbourne hasn't invested in increasing public transport capacity like Sydney has, so any potential growth is "squeezed off" the systems by lack of capacity. At the same time, I feel it may be much easier to drive and park in Melbourne due to greater road capacity and less geographical constraints. Congestion, journey time and lack of parking have throttled growth in driving in Sydney.

[swtt]

From news article above
The number of bus services in the inner west has increased following the privatisation of bus services there in 2018.

After being in Sydney 2 weeks ago, and seeing how many stickers there are from the RTBU stating that 'privatisation = less trips', I'm sure this will be very annoying to them

Back on topic, during my short stay, I was very surprised to see early morning services (before peak) being very highly patronised. Caught the first B1 to Mona Vale, leaving Wynyard at 5:30am - 99% sure it was a standing load. It's a stark contrast to Perth, where you'd be getting that are 7am on trips into the city.

Cheers!

Some of it is financially motivated - more so the train trips given 30% discount for off peak tap on before 07:01:00 (07:00:59 is still considered off peak - try it!), and there's usually a little queue forming at stations at around 08:59 so that you tap on at 09:00:00 (commencement of off peak again)

[burrumbus]

Agreed Tony.
Melbourne has not invested in additional capacity for several years now,although there are projects such as the underground rail extensions either being worked on or in the pipeline.
There has been no investment in additional capacity on tram routes with several routes screaming for more capacity
The rail system is what really needs the capacity desperately with many lines at or over capacity even off peak.
The bus system in Melbourne has not seen substantial reform to create relevant for current travel patterns networks over large slabs of suburban Melbourne.Many areas in Melbourne have bus networks that have not changed in 40-50 years.
The current Labor government is very interested in building new infrastructure,but is not interested in altering ,often
for neutral or low cost current networks to create more viable networks.
Contrast this to Sydney where substantial investment has been made in building up frequency on the train and bus networks.
Sure we can be critical of aspects of this but the patronage has followed the investments in many areas.
I think the privatisation of region 6 has generated substantial patronage increases.Hard political decision but the proof is in the patronage lift pudding.

[iamthouth]

Are we sure there was a 104.6% increase, or did this reporter just look at 6 months of 2018 Transit Systems data, and compare it to 12 months of 2019 data?

[boronia]

From news article above
The number of bus services in the inner west has increased following the privatisation of bus services there in 2018.

Just what is the "inner west", relative to the entire Region 6?

Part of this increase might have come from services which simply switched from R9 to full R6 operation. Likewise part of the increase in patronage. I find it hard to believe that patronage has doubled on a route by route basis across the region, without a significant increase in the fleet.

[In Transit]

I think the privatisation of region 6 has generated substantial patronage increases.Hard political decision but the proof is in the patronage lift pudding.

Personally I don't believe the 104.6% claim in the article for Region 6 is anywhere being accurate, on a like for like basis. 10.46% might be...

TfNSW's public available patronage stats by region don't take into the reallocation of quite a number of services from region 9 to region 6 at the time of Transit Systems commencing ops - so without the stats being corrected for this making any year on year comparisons between the last year of STA and first year of Transit Systems is completely and utterly worthless - this hasn't stopped government from spruiking these misleading results though.

As usual, statistics tend to be highly misleading without the full context behind them - and appropriate cleansing to ensure you are really comparing apples with apples. And often that context is something of an inconvenient truth...

[swtt]

Quite possible it's 104.6%. I wouldn't think M20, M30 & M50 was operated by "Region 6" prior to the franchising to TSA?

[Mr OC Benz]

The patronage claims for Region 6 has since been corrected. It was actually a 9.5 per cent increase...

Correction: An earlier version of this story said that trips on inner west bus routes more than doubled last year. Those figures were only for trips taken after the privatisation of Bus Contract 6 and didn't include bus services run by State Transit in the first half of 2018. The correct increase was 9.5 per cent between 2018 and 2019.

[Transtopic]

It's worth noting that Melbourne hasn't seen a similar surge in patronage in recent times despite their rapid, mostly-immigration driven growth as well. So as mentioned earlier, there's more to the story than migrants using more public transport. If Sydney growth is indeed migrant-driven, why aren't Melbourne migrants (who by in large have similar backgrounds to Sydney ones) using public transport?

It's worth bearing in mind that although I believe Sydney attracts the highest number of immigrants from overseas, the population growth overall in Melbourne is also driven by intra-state migration, mostly from Sydney. This is one reason why Melbourne's population is surging ahead at a much faster rate than Sydney's, which is suffering a net loss in intra-state migration, no doubt in part because of the relatively higher housing prices within a reasonable distance of the CBD and cost of living. I wouldn't think that there would be too much difference in job opportunities between the two cities in driving this and it certainly wouldn't be because of the weather or love of Aussie Rules.

I also don't think that's it's got anything to do with the alleged traffic congestion in Sydney, because it's just as bad in Melbourne, particularly on the main inner city road corridors where cars share the limited road space with trams. There's no major Eastern inner city north/south bypass of the Melbourne CBD and the likes of Punt Rd are a no-go zone in peak hours.

My son and his family moved to Melbourne 15 years ago, primarily because of the cost of housing. They didn't want the long commute from the more affordable outer suburban areas in Sydney. They now live 8km from the Melbourne CBD in the Inner North, with both train and tram services. Two of our closest friends' children, all of whom grew up together with our own in Sydney, have done the same for similar reasons.

However, in saying that, it's remarkable that when my son and daughter-in-law come to Sydney, they are so impressed with the development of our rail and road networks compared with Melbourne, as much as they like living there. In spite of the faster growth in Melbourne's population compared to Sydney, this may come back to bite them if they are unprepared to cope with the increasing demand for significantly greater public transport usage.

Sydney has always had the highest level of public transport usage of any Australian city, which is now in excess of 75% of all trips into the CBD, which is high by world standards. Even the new motorway extensions aren't going to change that, because they're essentially designed to bypass the CBD, reducing congestion on the local road network.

In my view, the principal reason for the surge in public transport patronage is not so much because of increasing road congestion, although that plays a part, but a combination of factors such as the limited availability and cost of all-day parking, particularly in the CBD, and the increased frequency of rail and bus services. However, the existing Sydney Trains network is now almost stretched to the limit beyond the current infrastructure's capacity to cope with the demand, although some for whatever reason fail to acknowledge that if more investment was committed to upgrading the current infrastructure with track amplifications and other improvements, it would significantly increase overall capacity. It's a myth that the metro expansion, as welcome as it is and I support it, will resolve the inability of the current network to cope.

[Transtopic]

The North Shore Line increase in patronage of 38% has to put into perspective, as it significantly increased between Chatswood and the CBD because of a new rail line (Metro Northwest) interchanging at Chatswood, which replaced existing direct bus services from the North West to the CBD. The line frequency was also increased from Chatswood to the CBD to 20tph with upgraded signalling. The increase in patronage on the Berowra to Chatswood sector of the North Shore Line would be a more relevant statistic.