Predictions for the 2020s

[ScaniaGrenda]

So here's a semi remake of my further predictions I was intending to post last night before my forum session expired.

People
Queen Elizabeth II passes away before 2030

John Cleese passes away before 2027

Christopher Lloyd passes away before 2026

Rowan Atkinson retires from acting sometime between 2023 and 2028

Shops & Retail
Sanity closes all of their physical retail shops and becomes 100% an online only retailer

Big W closes more stores in smaller towns and now can only be found at Major shopping centres

KFC Launches another drive through only restaurant in either Sydney. Melbourne or Brisbane

McDonald's does their own drive through only restaurant, It opens either in the UK or USA first

Transport
STA Sydney begins withdrawal of their Euro 3 Volvo B12BLEs CB60 buses around 2023 or 2024 and isn't finished withdrawing all of them until 2028. Some private operators buy them and all of them go to different places around Australia, a few small private buyers even buy them to try converting them into motorhomes, the rest that aren't sold are used for parts or are sent for scrapping.

All Remaining Scania L94UBs Volgrens that are still at Brisbane Transport are withdrawn between this year and next year

Singapore trials a Volgren Optimus bodied bus between 2020 and 2030, it's likely it'll be a hybrid bus and the chassis will be a Volvo B5RLEH or the local equivalent of it.

All remaining Volgren bodied buses in Singapore made before 2003 are retired and sent for scrapping. This is because their Transport Authority deems buses "unsafe" once they've reached their end of life period

NSW Trainlink J-Set trains go under a refurbishment program. The Refurbishment includes improved lighting and digital signage, new windows (Removing all etched and scratched windows) and the toilets are upgraded.

The Asian market trials a Volvo B9TL Volgren Optimus


Technology

Sony launches a disc-less PS5. The model becomes a popular hit with those with high-speed Internet connections and those who wish to have a full digital library.
GTA VI launches in 2023 first coming to Xbox Series X and PS5. It'll launch on PC in 2025
Google Stadia launches in Australia after 2025
3D Printing capability is improved, it now only takes less than an hour to print something the size of a TV remote for instance.
Nintendo Launches an Nintendo 64 Classic. Playstation also follows suit and launches a PS2 classic.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Here are a few more perditions for the decade of the 2020s

Free to air commercial stations on the east coast will network their nightly news bulletins
NASCAR will hold a round of any of their national series outside of the US or Canada for the first time
A rail tunnel built linking Richmond and Katoomba via Bilpin
Campbelltown railway station relocation to near Campbelltown mall

[Centralian]

Here are a few more perditions for the decade of the 2020s
......... A rail tunnel built linking Richmond and Katoomba via Bilpin.....

Botanica Touring provides a tourist link already.
I think you haven't considered the Grose Valley which lies in between those destinations.

Edit: I should have also added....Why ?

[ScaniaGrenda]

Here's some predication I thought of which is mostly to do with Transport and predictions for what I'd see happening to certain buses in the Future

Transport

The rare Csepel CB60 bodied buses 4696 MO and 4697 MO are withdrawn from Thornton HVB between this year and next year, it's likely they'll get sent to Edgeworth Depot and stay there for some time as a Dereg bus before it either gets scrapped or sold. This'll also mark the end of the Csepel's existing with a low floor Custom Coaches body as far as I know, only three of these low floors are known to exist on the CB60 body.

Thornton Depot starts withdrawing their MAN 12.220 CB30's, all of them were made between 2000 and 2001 which possibly means they'll be withdrawn in 2025, same story as what'll likely happen to the Csepel is that they'll be Dereg and sent to Edgeworth. Due to low floors & Midi buses being popular (even if their a little old), I suspect a few other operators might buy them and they'll either be turned into a party bus or put in an operators emergency rail replacement bus fleet. 1 or two may even make it into preservation.

Again with the Thornton Deport, the Mercedes-Benz O405NH's "CC 550" are withdrawn and going by ex 7598 MO it was dereg and sent to St Marys and possibly scrapped so I see these bypassing Edgeworth and going up there before their scrapped or their whereabouts are made unknown.

Now for other operators predictions I spoke about how I predict Newcastle Transport will withdraw all remaining MAN 11.220 Ansair Orana buses between this year & next year. Well I was doing a rego check on the remaining units that (as of this time are still reported to be on the NT Fleetlist in service) and get no results found when I input their registration so I can safely say all have been withdrawn.



Newcastle Transport withdraws all remaining MAN 11.220 Ansair Orana buses from service between this year and the next year or two marking the end of the last ever MAN ansair Oranas to operate public route service. Seeing as sales for these MAN's are popular going by Fleet-lists, it's likely they'll skip scrapping and make it onto a new owner, possibly as a shuttle bus, preservation or party bus.

Withdrawal of m/o 3405 and m/o 3606, in case your wondering these are the two ex original Airport Express Mercedes-Benz O405N (Not NH) Ansair orana buses, only two were made for State Transit and both ended up staying with Newcastle Transport when the service was privatised. I can't predict what'll happen two these two after withdrawal but I hope due to the rareness of the chassis & body that one of them at least makes preservation. I've never been able to ride them but would hate to see them rot after withdrawal. Maybe the Sydney Bus Musuem would be interested in snapping one of the two up?

And this brings us to the last Ansair Orana bodied buses in Newcastle Transports fleet, the Volvo B10BLE Ansair Oranas, I haven't seen other operators such as State Transit or Transits Systems withdrawal them as fast or frequent as what the other Ansair Oranas on other chassis do but the B10BLE Ansair Oranas time will come and they'll be withdrawn, I suspect between 2025 and 2028. Seeing how the Ex Brisbane Transport B10L Austral pacific proved popular with private operators and charter operators, I do possibly see the withdrawn B10BLE's making their way to other operators who will likely keep them for use on Charters or rail replacement buses.

Well we're almost 6 months in so let's see which of my predictions were accurate

1. I said that the remaining Csepel Lowfloor CB60 buses would be withdrawn this year and sent to Edgeworth depot, I was partly right. As of this post one Csepel CB60 out of the remaining 2 in service was withdrawn back in March, It was not sent to Edgeworth, instead it sits at the back of the Thornton depot alongside ex 4696 MO (which is the same make & body). 1 More still remains in service at Thornton but I'm not sure for how much longer, if I have to take another guess, this one will sit at the back of the Thornton depot but I don't possibly know why since a majority of the Csepels are gone including their high-floor counterparts.

2. I said that Thornton Depot (should've really said CDC Hunter Valley in general) would start withdrawing their MAN 12.220 CB30 buses, so far none that I'm aware of have been withdrawn but I have noted some Qcity Units that have been withdrawn & stored, one being used for parts (missing it's front bumper)

3. I said Thornton Depot would start withdrawing their Mercedes-Benz O405NH's with CC "550" bodies. I'm not aware of any that have been withdrawn yet so that prediction hasn't been right so far but we still have another 7 months to go for a 2020 prediction on CDC withdrawing the "550" series buses.

Other operator predictions

In my quoted post I predicted that Newcastle Transport would withdraw their remaining MAN 11.220 Ansair Orana buses. I was doing a rego check on the ones that are still reported to be with Newcastle Transport as of this post going by the Fleet-List and wasn't getting any results so I can put this down as an accurate prediction.

I can say as of this post m/o 3405 & m/o 3406 haven't been withdrawn yet but as I said about, still another 7 months to go for my prediction on their 2020 withdrawal. I believe their rego is up towards the end of the year so we'll see whether Newcastle Transport keeps them or not

As with the above, none of the B10BLE's have been withdrawn yet (at least to my knowledge), not sure about Transit Systems or STA but I haven't heard NT withdrawing their B10BLE's yet.

[1whoknows]

Gee three whole pages and no one predicted Covid. Clearly the worlds biggest rolling pin must have been used to smash everyone's (crystal) balls.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Gee three whole pages and no one predicted Covid. Clearly the worlds biggest rolling pin must have been used to smash everyone's (crystal) balls.

Nobody would of been able to predict that the CCP would of let millions of people including many that where infected with COVID out of Wuhan before looking down the Hubei province

[MotorOmnibus8562]

I have a prediction now that ive been looking at the latest data:

USA will have 4 million confirmed coronavirus cases by the end of july and will end up having an infection rate of around 100 thousand people per day, which would mean by October, USA will have around 16 million confirmed COVID19 cases, it was previously predicted that 96 million would end up getting infected by COVID19 in USA but I gotta be honest, I'd be seeing around 100 million plus maybe around over 25 million undetected/unreported cases by mid 2021

Never thought id be saying this but I bet that even Trump's supporters are starting to hate him now and want to go for the democrats, I guess that might teach people a lesson now....

By October New Zealand will have only had an infection rate of only one Coronavirus case per every three months and then Australia will end up only having one coronavirus case per month.

[Campbelltown busboy]

The black lives matters movement and whatever the Seattle 6 block mob are currently calling themselves will somehow find their way into China sometime in the next year where disgruntled Chinese citizens that hate the way that president Xi and the Chinese communist party is running China will join in and bring the political party that wants to rule the world down
If you want to know what I mean by the Seattle 6 block mob then read this
https://www.seattlepi.com/seattlenews/a ... 341281.php

COVID will be controlled by 2024 or 2025

Everything will go back to normal before 2030

[MotorOmnibus8562]

I wouldn't say that everything will go back to normal, I would say we'd be going forwards for a change.

[Campbelltown busboy]

I wouldn't say that everything will go back to normal, I would say we'd be going forwards for a change.

If leaders in the west don't do anything about the South China Sea island grabbing the CCP is doing along with the way they are treating Hong Kong and Taiwan at the moment with all this your apart of China stuff if we don't stop this then we will be living in a CCP controlled world by 2030 if they are not stopped

[MotorOmnibus8562]

Never really thought of that one

One thing about going forward is that the virus has pretty much defined what we can do at home that we have never done previously, most office work can at home, same thing with Birthday parties and all that, School can be somwhere in between the lines for certain students.

Here are some more predictions from me:
Microgrids (similarly to the one in a village in Bangledesh seen in the documentary, 2040) will be used more across the world meaning the community will become less dependent on the government when it comes to electricity.

More Autonomous cars will be made but will still have the option where the auto can be off.

The special number plates that are being trialed to reduce fake plates on cars in Queensland at the end of the year will be rolled out nationwide.

CAF will start making a new type of tram (Urbos 4?)

Use of Public Transport will become more encouraged to reduce environmental emissions, especially now that there has been an increase in hybrid and electric buses, especially in Melbourne

Express and Omnibus (TOST) will start making electric buses

The NSW Government will start ordering local again.

Electric long distance coaches will be built.

(further into the future)
The oldest person to ever live will end up being 150 years old before 2100

[Campbelltown busboy]

Full sized autonomous buses will start to be trialled by state governments
https://www.volvobuses.com.au/en-au/new ... c-bus.html

Interstate heavy vehicle number plates will be have to be used for cars buses and state registered trucks

[MotorOmnibus8562]

Interstate heavy vehicle number plates will be have to be used for cars buses and state registered trucks

What do you mean by that?

[ScaniaGrenda]

Looks like I was right about the digital Playstation 5 console although I would've thought it would've been more of a later on thing rather than a release alongside the the disc model variant of the console. Seeing as pricing hasn't been announced yet as of this post I'm going to predict the Playstation 5 launch price will be around the $700 mark for the version with disc support while the digital disc-less edition is around $150 cheaper.

Emmmm, okay how about some more predictions from me....


Minor predictions (Predictions that have a very low chance of occurring but could still possibly happen)

Hunter Valley Buses trials a Custom Endevour on a Volvo B8RLE chassis but makes no purchases & sticks with Volgren as preferred bus body.

On demand bus transport becomes available in the Maitland area & is operated by Hunter Valley Buses using a mix of either Hino ponchos & or Toyota Hiaces.

Major predictions (Predictions that have a very high chance of occurring)

EX stationlink Volvo Optimuses that were sent down to Hunter Valley Buses get swapped from m/o plates to xxxx MO plates at some point

Rover Coaches / Motors purchases a few Iveco Metro buses with the Custom Endeavour body

2023 - 2025 Volgren announces a successor to their Endura & Optimus body range

Technology

SSD's continue to drop in price with 500GB SSD's eventually being available for less than $60

between 2025 and 2030 Microsoft will reveal their next desktop operating system (Wouldn't surprise me with internet connectivity rising that we eventually see them trial an Operating system as a service where your primary OS is virtually hosted in the cloud and you pay either an annual or monthly fee to use it)

Movie theaters will eventually be slowly phrased out and become a thing of the past with new upcoming movie releases to be shown on streaming platforms & later of course released on physical media.

Grand theft Auto IV will become available to play on Mobile devices.

PS3 & Xbox 360 game servers start switching off with the last games to be shutdown before 2025.

Dial-up internet connections become a past telecommunications medium in Australia with only remote & distant communities still using it due to lack of other connectivity options being available.

[Campbelltown busboy]

Predictions; Transport
Bustech will retire the VST and announce a successor for it's multi chassis city bus body
The NSW government will order the first suburban passenger trains built in the Sydney metropolitan area since the last batch of Comeng built S sets where built by Commonwealth Engineering Granville in the 70s

Predictions Media
9 radio will sell 2UE 4BH and Magic 1278 and also takeover 5AA
The federal government will downsize the ABC
Nova Entreatment will give Smooth FM a format overhaul
CBS will make network 10 a CBS content only network when it comes to containing and showing content from the USA

Predictions Auto
Combustion engines will become less common in new cars
Hybrid motors will be more common in new cars
Electric cars will become available to more people

[MotorOmnibus8562]

Express coach builders will have a second factory

[1whoknows]

I'll just repeat one I made on Facebook back in March. Americans, revolted by 150k plus covid deaths by November, elect Biden in a landslide. He only needs to make one election promise....a UK/ AUS style health care system.

[Campbelltown busboy]

I'll just repeat one I made on Facebook back in March. Americans, revolted by 150k plus covid deaths by November, elect Biden in a landslide. He only needs to make one election promise....a UK/ AUS style health care system.

Didn't his former boss try to assemble a universal healthcare system when the democrats where last in office

[scott]

Trump will head into retirement, Melania will leave him.

Daniel Andrews will face a leadership spill or two, then pick up his politician's pension.

[Campbelltown busboy]

The networks will turn off their HD signals making the 4K signal the standard for tv in Australia

Strength of DAB transmitter signals will become better and signals will travel further distances from a transmitter

The completion of the 5G network rollout, the shutdown of the 3G network and the possible introduction of 6G

[Heihachi_73]

The Liberals will win three consecutive elections to retain the status quo while the AUD tanks to levels unseen since the late 90s (but how good is the Budget Surplus™?)
Volgren ceases local manufacture after finding it cheaper to buy buses from China.
Transdev calls it quits in Victoria and is replaced by another for-profit multinational that doesn't GAF.
Yarra Trams debuts the F class tram on the 96 but still doesn't bother installing accessible tram stops along the other routes where low floor trams have been running for over twenty years.
Routes 57 and 82 are "downgraded" from Z3s to the slightly newer A classes (an A class tram is nothing more than a Z3 in a smaller body; AFAIK they were originally codenamed the Z4 before production).
The Hurstbridge line is upgraded to every ten minutes all day along with the Mernda line.
The Belgrave, Lilydale and Alamein lines retain their single-track sections and half-hourly timetables.
Night Network services still only run the same two nights a week.
The Geelong line is upgraded to "high speed" trains and is faster between Geelong and Melbourne than half the Melbourne suburban electric network despite the latter being a third of the distance.
The Newport, Frankston and Sandringham lines gain more X'Trapolis trains (along with the current Siemens trains) as the Comengs are slowly being phased out, the latter being pushed to the slower Northern lines (Craigieburn, Upfield, maybe even back to the Burnley/Clifton Hill groups) and the HCMT stock running exclusively on the Dandenong/Sunbury lines.

@Campbelltown busboy - forget HD, we still have 576i SD as the default down Mexico way. Foxtel doesn't even offer HD (ignoring FTA) unless you pay extra!

[MotorOmnibus8562]

I highly doubt that the Liberals will win the next election as people that were affected by the bushfires still haven't been able to get back onto their feet.

I also highly doubt that volgren will stop building buses in Australia either, A lot of Bus operators in Victoria are highly dependent on them.

[Campbelltown busboy]

National highway M31 will become 4 lanes each way between Camden Valley way Prestons at the M5/M7 interchange and Metropolitan Ring road Thomastown

All Transport For NSW MSBSC and OSMBSC contracted operators will be forced to order Custom Endeavours

NSW will get their first full term premier in two decades witch might happen this time if she doesn't stuff up or gets double crossed my a leadership spill

[ScaniaGrenda]

Looks like I gave a way later timeframe for the B10BLE Ansair Orana Withdrawals than what I should've, according to the Fleetlists Transit Systems has withdrawn m/o 3967 & started using it for parts, I guess I should predict that more will be withdrawn shortly

More unlikely predictions but you never know

An ex STA Mercedes-Benz O405NH Citaro gets preserved and somehow gets converted to no longer use gas so therefor it can live on and continue to be used.

STA withdraws one of their ex North & Western O405 "CC516" and donates it to the Sydney Bus Musuem. The remaining O405s will go straight to the scrap yard.

Newcastle Transport Withdraws their ex North & Western Volvo B10Bs between next year and 2022.

Newcastle Transport will be the next Hunter Valley based transport operator to trial an electric hybrid bus followed by CDC Hunter Valley Buses.

When Newcastle Transport begins to withdraw the Volvo B10BLE's, their replacements will be Bustechs.

Within the next 3-4 years I predict Sid-Foggs will withdraw all their ex Action transport Renaults. Their replacements will more than likely be a Scania Irizar of some sort.

North Sydney Bus Charters takes some of the withdrawn ex STA / TS Volvo B10BLE Ansairs and adds them to their own fleet.

[Heihachi_73]

With the 'rona in place and stage 4 lockdown and a ridiculously early curfew in Melbourne (despite some regions having zero cases, unlike the less-restricted Geelong with well over 100 cases), I have little hope that the Victorian sheeple will vote Labor now.

More predictions:

The 2020s will probably be the end of Ventura's Northcoast buses (especially the non air conditioned pre-Downtown ones; Buddina etc.), and maybe the oldest of the MAN Designlines too (most likely the Orbitors and the other similar "square" model), but I have a feeling some of the bubble variants (including the lone Scania owned by Ventura) will make it to 2030.

The oldest low floor Volgrens (CR222L/CR224L/CR227L/CR228L) and Custom CB60s still in route service will be withdrawn in the second half of the 2020s (O405NHs, L94UBs and B7RLEs). The ex-Invicta CR224L artic(s?) will probably survive though. Transdev have already begun dumping their ex-SmartBus O405s (Custom 550s - but not the CB60s yet).

SmartBuses will lose the silver livery and be given the generic PTV livery unless withdrawn beforehand.